Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 13.674777 15.937971 18.400365 21.270916 24.517434 28.067233 32.234039
2024-12-29 10.452003 13.619351 17.393161 22.184920 28.067557 35.011800 43.783520
2025-01-05 8.142590 11.697785 16.278268 22.526411 30.729048 41.022480 54.791723
2025-01-12 6.458376 10.128565 15.196287 22.551649 32.772555 46.267214 65.183699
2025-01-19 5.254940 8.927684 14.325159 22.600191 34.679427 51.333238 75.614209
2025-01-26 4.740344 8.615839 14.615127 24.235168 38.846906 59.698483 91.054426
2025-02-02 4.194984 8.135823 14.545353 25.264768 42.155349 67.029561 105.495411
2025-02-09 3.734048 7.700889 14.458561 26.208197 45.353111 74.359851 120.352968
2025-02-16 3.190370 7.011666 13.837577 26.181235 46.978339 79.385632 132.046226
2025-02-23 2.646166 6.212222 12.899823 25.483707 47.406830 82.531576 140.998547
2025-03-02 2.164204 5.435737 11.880717 24.498885 47.219186 84.622729 148.351737
2025-03-09 1.891434 5.040526 11.515072 24.629234 48.911881 89.808656 160.856642
2025-03-16 1.596185 4.545062 10.901389 24.263050 49.762936 93.771438 171.823057
2025-03-23 1.475172 4.433568 11.058190 25.402139 53.437432 102.755818 191.644092
2025-03-30 1.310631 4.178586 10.871166 25.828782 55.812791 109.632675 208.283473
2025-04-06 1.141274 3.871225 10.520573 25.872957 57.450758 115.296040 223.134857
2025-04-13 0.996946 3.596196 10.199105 25.933356 59.107758 121.069319 238.452616
2025-04-20 0.971149 3.656270 10.677845 27.774312 64.430392 133.795936 266.628287
2025-04-27 0.908795 3.592489 10.843962 28.932083 68.445531 144.309531 291.323173
2025-05-04 0.846689 3.514945 10.963560 29.991846 72.327037 154.765067 316.372585
2025-05-11 0.743472 3.276323 10.630668 29.961694 73.915350 160.944199 333.881132
2025-05-18 0.625388 2.951350 10.013084 29.178470 73.821719 163.860017 345.465626
2025-05-25 0.514422 2.614428 9.301163 28.072012 72.915489 165.104925 353.936155